Will the Indiana Pacers clinch a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday night?
Indy is one of four teams playing a crucial Game 5 matchup in the NBA playoffs tonight, but the Pacers are the only one with a 3-1 series lead after a dominating showing in Game 4 against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavs, who may not have Donovan Mitchell (ankle) in Game 5, have been pushed to the brink in this matchup, but they are still favored to force a Game 6.
Cleveland is aiming to become just the 14th team in NBA history to erase a 3-1 series deficit, but the odds to win the NBA Finals suggest that Indy will ultimately go on to advance to the East Finals for the second straight season.
In the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder matchup has become a best-of-three, as the teams split Games 1 through 4, including a comeback win for the Thunder on Sunday in Game 4 in Denver.
Now, OKC is heavily favored to win Game 5 and take control of this series.
So, how should we bet on this playoff action?
I have one side and a trio of player props to consider for Tuesday’s contests.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 255-246-4 (-3.93 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1265-1190-26 (+34.16 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Indiana Pacers +7.5 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unitTyrese Haliburton UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-145) – 0.5 unitNikola Jokic UNDER 8.5 Assists (-115) – 0.5 unitJalen Williams UNDER 21.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unitIndiana Pacers +7.5 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit
Oddsmakers appear to be giving the Cavs respect at home in Game 5 to extend this series, but I’m not buying it.
Mitchell is banged up, and he’s literally carried this team in this series, scoring 33 or more points in each of the first three games, yet the Cavs still lost two of them.
Indiana dominated Game 4, easily beating the Cavs’ 3-2 zone that helped them take Game 3 in Indy. The Pacers have more depth than Cleveland right now with all of the Cavs’ injuries, and it’s been pretty clear that Darius Garland is not at 100 percent in this matchup.
All season long, the Pacers have thrived as road underdogs, going 15-10 against the spread. They already have two outright wins in Cleveland, and I think this spread is a little disrespectful since it’s unclear if Mitchell will be operating at his normal capacity in Game 5.
I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be shocked if Indiana wraps things up tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-145) – 0.5 unit
This postseason, Tyrese Haliburton has not shot the 3-ball well, even though he did hit an incredibly clutch one to win Game 2 in this series.
Haliburton is just 16-for-55 from 3 (29.1 percent), and he’s only made three or more shots from beyond the arc in two of his nine playoff games. In this series, Haliburton isn’t even taking a ton of 3-pointers, shooting 5-for-14 from beyond the arc in four games.
He’s failed to clear this line in each of those games, and he only attempted two shots from deep in Game 2 and one in Game 3.
With the downturn in his usage as a 3-point shooter, Haliburton is an easy fade at this number in Game 4.
Nikola Jokic UNDER 8.5 Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit
Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic has struggled mightily with his playmaking against Oklahoma City, dishing out just 21 assists to 23 turnovers in four games in this series.
Now, Jokic is set a 8.5 assists in Game 5 – a number that he hasn’t cleared in six straight playoff games. That’s right, the last time Jokic had over 8.5 assists came in Game 5 of the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers.
As great a Jokic is with his passing, I can’t get behind him at this price. He’s failed to clear 6 assists in a single game in this series, and he’s averaging just 13.5 potential assists per game against OKC.
For comparison, Jokic averaged 16.5 potential assists per game in the regular season and 16.5 per game overall in the playoffs. He’s seen a major drop off in this series, and I’ll continue to bet the UNDER until he starts to figure out this No. 1 OKC defense.
Jalen Williams UNDER 21.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
Thunder All-Star Jalen scored 20 or more points in each of his first four games in the first round of the playoffs, but he has cooled off in the second round against Denver:
Game 1: 16 points (5-of-20 FG, 2-of-9 3P)Game 2: 17 points (6-of-11 FG, 0-of-3 3P)Game 3: 32 points (11-of-21 FG, 3-of-7 3P)Game 4: 10 points (2-of-13 FG, 0-of-5 3P)
Not only is Williams’ usage fluctuating, but he’s been extremely inefficient, shooting 36.9 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from 3 against Denver.
While the Thunder need him if they want to win a title, I don’t think his 32-point, 11-for-21 outburst in Game 3 is anything that bettors should trust going forward. Williams has made just 13 shots in his three other games combined.
He’s overvalued at this points prop in Game 5.